In this article, we will analyze the influence of the assassination attempt on the stock market with a focus on the keyword “Trump and stock market.”
On July 13, 2024, during a campaign rally at a farm fair in Butler, Pennsylvania, an assassination attempt was made on presidential candidate Donald Trump. The incident, which left Trump with a non-fatal injury to his right ear, had a significant impact on his approval ratings and election odds, and subsequently, on the U.S. stock market.
Overview of the Assassination Attempt
On July 13, 2024, at 2 PM (local time), during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump was the target of an assassination attempt. The assailant, Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, was shot and killed at the scene. Trump sustained a non-fatal injury to his right ear. One attendee was killed, and two others were critically injured. Trump reassured his supporters via social media that he was in good health.
Impact on the Election Landscape
Given the advanced ages of both Biden (81) and Trump (78), demonstrating “resilience” is a key issue in this election. Trump’s defiant display, raising his hand despite bleeding, contrasted sharply with Biden’s recent gaffe at a NATO meeting, where he mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Zelensky as Putin. This stark contrast boosted Trump’s standing, with Predict It showing Trump’s election odds rising from 60C to 66C and Biden’s falling from 27C to 21C, indicating an increased probability of Trump’s election.
Historical Comparisons
Historically, several U.S. presidents or presidential candidates have been targeted in assassination attempts, each affecting the stock market differently. Notable examples include Ronald Reagan, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Theodore Roosevelt.
- Ronald Reagan (1981): Reagan quickly recovered from his assassination attempt, resulting in a surge in his approval ratings. However, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices showed little correlation with the event. One week post-incident, the Dow Jones increased by 0.21%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.26%.
- Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933): The stock market initially declined following Roosevelt’s assassination attempt but rebounded quickly after his inauguration. One week after the incident, the Dow Jones fell by 4.8% and the S&P 500 by 5.1%, but both indices showed significant gains of 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively, one month later.
- Theodore Roosevelt (1912): Following the assassination attempt, the stock market showed little reaction, reflecting the lowered odds of his election. The Dow Jones fell by 0.10% one week after the incident.
These historical cases illustrate that the stock market’s reaction to assassination attempts can vary widely based on the economic context and political climate at the time.
| Event | Dow Jones Index | S&P 500 Index | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan’s Assassination Attempt | 0.21% (1 week) | -0.26% (1 week) | 1981 |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Assassination Attempt | -4.8% (1 week) | -5.1% (1 week) | 1933 |
| Theodore Roosevelt’s Assassination Attempt | -0.10% (1 week) | – | 1912 |
Prospects for the U.S. Stock Market Post-Attempt
The immediate impact of Trump’s assassination attempt on the stock market is expected to be limited. However, as Trump’s election odds improve, there is a higher likelihood that Republican policy stances will be factored into the market. Key policies include corporate tax cuts, stringent immigration controls, and increased military spending.
- Corporate Tax Cuts: If Trump is elected, there is a strong possibility that corporate tax cuts will be implemented, reducing the tax burden on companies, potentially increasing corporate profits, and positively impacting the stock market.
- Stringent Immigration Controls: Trump’s immigration policies could affect the labor market, potentially causing labor shortages in certain industries while benefiting domestic workers.
- Increased Military Spending: Trump’s stance on military spending aims to strengthen national security, which could positively impact defense-related stocks.
Trump and Stock Market
The immediate impact of Trump’s assassination attempt on the Trump and Stock market is expected to be limited. However, as Trump’s election odds improve, there is a higher likelihood that Republican policy stances will be factored into the market. Key policies include corporate tax cuts, stringent immigration controls, and increased military spending.
Conclusion
Trump and stock market are closely intertwined. The assassination attempt has increased Trump’s election odds, which raises the likelihood of Republican policies being implemented. Historical cases show varied stock market reactions to assassination attempts, depending on the specific circumstances of each incident. Investors should monitor market trends closely and make informed decisions.
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